Recession Predictions YOU should be PREPARED!
Recession Prediction it is difficult for humans to accurately predict of recession and what the future may hold.
In this video we will show you how artificial intelligence warns us and how you should be prepared!
As the old saying goes, if you get three economists in a room you’re likely to get four opinions. Because our financial and economic system is so complex, it’s incredibly hard for humans to accurately predict what the future might hold.
Artificial intelligence has an unfair advantage in that area, but we’ll cover that further down.
This is the main reason why we don’t know for sure when, or even if, a recession will hit. At the moment economists from the Federal National Mortgage Association, more commonly known as Fannie Mae, are predicting that a recession will start in early 2023.
Their expectations are for total economic growth through 2022 to hit 0.1%, with this sliding to -0.4% over the course of 2023. These figures are revised down from the previous numbers which suggested 2022 would see economic growth of 1.2% and a fall of just 0.1% in 2023.
Those numbers make the pasta bowl recession idea seem to make a lot of sense. While the U.S. economy contracting over a full year is a big deal, a fall in GDP of 0.4% isn’t the end of the world.
For context, the U.S. economy contracted 3.4% in 2020, 2.6% in 2009 and 1.8% in 1982.
Others aren’t so pessimistic. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is projecting continued economic growth for the U.S. through 2022 and into 2023. Economists at the IMF are expecting GDP growth to slow, but they are projecting an overall increase of 2.3% in 2022 and a 1% increase in 2023.
They’re also expecting the U.S. economy to narrowly avoid a recession, which would be good news for workers and investors alike.
These are two different predictions from two well respected and resourced organizations, so who do you believe? Really, it’s important to take a step back and look at the overall trend, rather than getting bogged down in the specifics of a percentage point here or there.
The economists from both Fannie Mae and the IMF are stating that 2023 is expected to be a slower year for economic growth than 2022. This means that the economy will likely cool, prices will (hopefully) start to level off and the job market may not be quite as strong.
Whether we tip over into an official recession really doesn’t matter. There’s no big button that gets pressed and no immediate impact to regular people. Whether economic growth is 0.2% or -0.2%, you probably won’t notice much difference to your day to day life.
That’s not to say you should ignore the theme, which is that the boom times are not around the corner. The economy is likely to slow, and that means that you need to make careful decisions around money and how to continue to grow against a more challenging backdrop.